FR-AI-0001Escalating
LLM Multi-Step Reasoning — Generalisation Beyond Training
Large language models can perform multi-step reasoning that generalises beyond memorised training examples.
FR-AI-0002Escalating
LLM Knowledge-Work Utility — Economically Valuable Task Performance
Large language models can perform economically valuable knowledge-work tasks with limited human supervision.
FR-AI-0003Fragmenting
RLHF Preference Generalisation — Behaviour Beyond Training Distribution
Reinforcement learning from human feedback produces AI systems whose behaviour continues to reflect human preferences when deployed beyond the conditions represented in training.
FR-AI-0004Fragmenting
Scaling Laws — Emergent Performance on Unseen Tasks
Scaling language model training increases performance on previously unseen tasks without task-specific optimisation.
FR-AI-0005Fragmenting
AGI Through Scaling — LLM Architecture as the Path to General Intelligence
Artificial General Intelligence will be achieved through scaling current large-language-model architectures.
FR-AI-0006Fragmenting
Scaling Mechanism Coherence — Continuity Across Model Sizes
Capabilities that emerge through scaling language models are explained by the same underlying mechanism across model sizes.
FR-AI-0007Fragmenting
Autonomous AI Scientific Discovery — Novel, Correct, Independent
AI systems can autonomously conduct scientific research that produces novel, correct discoveries.
FR-AI-0008Fragmenting
AI Medical Imaging Diagnosis — Specialist-Level Accuracy on Defined Tasks
AI-assisted medical diagnosis achieves specialist-level accuracy on defined imaging tasks.
FR-AM-0001Collapsed
Cold Fusion — Room-Temperature Nuclear Fusion in Electrochemical Cells
Electrochemical cells can produce nuclear fusion reactions at or near room temperature.
FR-AM-0002Fragmenting
Anomalous Excess Heat — Electrochemical Cells Beyond Conventional Chemistry
Electrochemical cells can produce anomalous excess heat that is not fully explained by conventional chemical processes.
FR-AM-0003Fragmenting
Cuprate Superconductivity — Mechanism Identification
The mechanism responsible for high-temperature superconductivity in cuprate materials has been identified.
FR-AM-0004Escalating
Commercial Fusion Power — Net Electricity at Grid Scale
A commercially viable fusion power plant can generate net electricity at grid scale.
FR-AM-0005Collapsed
Room-Temperature Superconductivity — Reproducibility Under Laboratory Conditions
A room-temperature superconductor can be produced under reproducible laboratory conditions.
FR-AM-0006Escalating
Solid-State Batteries — Commercial Viability for Electric Vehicles
Solid-state batteries can achieve commercially viable energy density, safety, and cycle life for electric vehicles.
FR-BT-0001Escalating
Senolytic Therapies — Meaningful Human Healthspan Extension
Senolytic therapies can meaningfully extend healthy human lifespan.
FR-BT-0002Escalating
Epigenetic Reprogramming — Biological Age Reversal Without Identity Loss
Epigenetic reprogramming can reverse biological age in living organisms without loss of cellular identity.
FR-BT-0003Fragmenting
Biological Age Biomarker Panels — Predictive Validity for Age-Related Decline
A blood-based biomarker panel can reliably predict biological age-related decline before clinical symptoms appear.
FR-BT-0004Fragmenting
Liquid Biopsy — Early Cancer Detection Before Conventional Diagnosis
A blood-based liquid biopsy can reliably detect cancer before conventional clinical diagnosis.
FR-QE-0002Fragmenting
D-Wave Quantum Annealing — Practical Computational Advantage
Quantum annealing systems have demonstrated practical computational advantage over classical methods on commercially or scientifically relevant optimisation tasks.
FR-QE-0003Escalating
Fault-Tolerant Logical Qubits — Error Rate Scaling with Code Distance
Fault-tolerant logical qubits can be demonstrated with logical error rates that improve as error-correcting code distance increases.
FR-QE-0004Resolving
Below-Threshold Quantum Error Correction — Scalable Architecture
Quantum error correction can reduce logical error rates below physical error rates in a scalable architecture.
FR-QE-0005Escalating
Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computing — RSA Factorisation
A quantum computer can factor commercially relevant RSA cryptographic keys faster than any classical computer.
FR-QE-0006Escalating
Fault-Tolerant Quantum Utility — Practically Useful Algorithms Beyond Classical Simulation
A fault-tolerant quantum computer can execute a practically useful quantum algorithm beyond classical simulation.
FR-QE-0007Fragmenting
Practical Quantum Advantage — Performance Beyond Classical Computation on Relevant Problems
A quantum computer has achieved quantum advantage on a practically relevant problem.
FR-QE-0008Resolving
Quantum Error Correction Scaling — Logical Rate Suppression Under Physical Overhead
Quantum error correction can reduce logical error rates faster than physical error rates increase with system scale.
FR-QE-0001Stabilising
Google Quantum Advantage (Sycamore) — Computational Supremacy via Random Circuit Sampling
A programmable quantum processor has demonstrated computational supremacy — performing a well-defined sampling task beyond the practical reach of any classical computer.